Why we're heading for a 'climate catastrophe' - BBC Newsnight

Some of the official prediction made about climate change sounded biblical in scale.
某些關於氣候變遷的官方預測聽起來與聖經息息相關。

More drowns more founding more flooding more of the most powerful tropical sight closed.And of course the seas rising 
將會發生更多洪水導致死亡數增加，熱帶景點也將會逐漸地被關閉，當然還有上漲的海平面。

A familiar litany. 
一段熟悉的連禱文。

And one they say we need to do more to fight.
有人說我們需要更努力地去反擊。

Something that will need rapid far reaching and unprecedented changes In all aspects in the society.
在現今社會中，空前無比且迅速的改變。

Our current no action cause is like this.Rising carbon emissions. And that will take us to a more than 4 degree rise by the 2100
目前情況是這樣的，二氧化碳排放量持續上升，依照這樣的速度將會在2100年增加超過4度。

But there is policy in place.They should restraint carbon growth on to this path.That probably means about a 3 degree rise.And if countries make good of on their promises.It will be a touch lower than that.
但是有解決的方針，他們應該控制二氧化碳增長量，這樣代表著提高約3度。但如果國家可以實現當初的承諾，上升氣溫將會低於3度。

Scientist though have been hoping for this path which will mean about a two degree rise.Now though they say we should aim for under a 1.5 degree rise.
科學家期望這樣的途徑，意味著只上升2度，他們現在表明我們應該將目標設在低於1.5度。

Now that half a degree change may not sound like much.But scientist think radically reduce the harm done to our world by climate change.
1.5度的改變聽起來似乎不多，但科學家們卻認為這將會大幅地減少氣候變遷對地球所帶來的傷害。

The thing is though to get there.We have to reduce our net carbon emission to zero by the year 2050.And that means huge changes to the way that we live.To how we get around.To how we generate electricity.To how we arrange our cities.To what we wear.Even to what we eat. 
但要達到這樣的願景，我們必須在2050年完全除去二氧化碳排放量，意味著我們的生活方式將會面臨極大的改變——我們的通行方式、我們的發電方式、大眾的城市計畫、我們的衣著，甚至是我們的飲食。

You can see why zero emissions are so radical. 
你可以看到無排放量是如此地重要。

If you look at carbon emission in historical context,hitting zero by 2050 would need a very certain shift and direction. 
當你一探二氧化碳排放量的歷史背景時，要在2050年遞減至零需要非常劇烈地轉變其方向。

It’s about making the chinese leadership,the Indian Leadership,and many the African leaders decide to move away from coal.
促使著中國領導權、印度領導權，還有許多非洲領導者們避免使用煤炭。

And unfortunately,that’s quite expensive for these countries.
然而不幸地，這樣的舉動對這些國家來說是極為花費的。

And the real issue is where the and who is prepared to pay the substantive cost of our fast switch out of this pernicious form of  fossil fuels.
但真正的問題是，哪裡的人民願意為如此的快速轉變，支付一大筆金額，以逃離對人體有害的化石燃料。

Now individual countries make their own climate plans.Getting them to follow through though is hard.
現在各國發想自己的氣候計畫，但要順勢完成並不容易。

For one thing,getting to 1.5 degrees would mean investing 2.5 percent of the world economy every year from now until 2035 In to energy infrastructure.
首先，只降低1.5度代表從現在開始直到2035年，每年需要將世界經濟的2.5%，投資於能源基礎設施。

According to bloomberg that’s 7 fold increase, 2.5% of our economy will be about 50 billion pounds more than we spend on defence.
根據美國彭博資訊公司將會帶來7倍成長，英國經濟的2.5%就等同於5千億磅，超過我們的國防預算。

We cannot hold to the current standard of living and really radically decarbonize.This has cost to us 
依照目前的生活方式，是沒有辦法迅速地脫碳，目前已經花費不少。

We ought to be blunt.Living beyond that means no politician wants to tell us that the fact to climate change is no longer in dispute.How we respond to it however is a polictical challenge.That will only become more acute in the coming decades.
我們需要了解到，沒有政客願意告訴我們這樣的事實——氣候變遷成已定的事實。我們的回應方式將是一大政治挑戰，在未來的日子裡只會越來越具有挑戰性。

And the price tag is rising.So is it possible to get the planet to align around the latest signs?
以及上漲的價格，有可能將地球與近期跡象劃上等號嗎？

In a moment we’ll talk to Simon Beard who studies existential risk at Cambridge Unerversity.
待會我們將討論Simon Beard，目前就讀於劍橋大學並專攻於生存風險

at Cambridge Unerversity 
目前就讀於劍橋大學並專攻於生存風險

And to Baroness Worthington who’s drafted the UK’s climate change act
Baroness Worthington
在十年前

Ten years ago 
提出 "氣候變化法" 草案

But are the chance of global response weaken 
當世界第二大汙染地領導者

When the leader of the world second largest polluter 
持懷疑態度的

is skeptical
是否會影響全球性回應

In the US poll showed the american views on climate change
根據美國民意調查指出

are increasingly polarize
人民對於氣候變遷的看法持續地兩極化

Republicans and independent voters increasingly to think the serious of global warming 
許多共和黨黨員以及獨立選民開始認為全球暖化的嚴重性被不實誇大

Is exaggerated where democrats are more worried about it than before 
反觀民主黨黨民則為其擔憂
 
So let’s try to peek into the mind head of the ministration there
讓我們一探政府人員的想法

I’m joined now from Washington by Myron Ebell
現在加入我們的是來自加拿大的Myron Ebell

Who was Donald Trump’s environmental advisor during the presidential transition period
在總統大選過渡期時擔任川普的環境顧問

He’s director of the CIA think tank the campaign from behalf of the US energy industry
他是中央情報局管理者的智囊團並代表美國能源產業

And deem the Paris climate agreement 
並認為巴黎氣候協議

Unprecented power-grap on america’s consumers and economy
顯然地奪取美國消費者及經濟的權力

Very good evening to you mister Ebell 
Ebell先生，午安

Do you think this report this latest one will change the administration’s view on climate change at all?
你認為這份最新的報告有辦法改變美國政府對於氣候變遷的看法嗎?

No i don’t. I think the United States is divided as you said I think some states like California
我不認為，我覺得美國某些州被分化

and New York and some of the New England states 
像是加州、紐約以及新英格蘭的某些地區

are pursuing the European union plan to make energy more expensive 
都在追求歐盟計畫使能源更昂貴

But I think President Trump and the heartline states that elected him are in a very different
但總統川普以及支持他的人民

very pro energy path
非常呼籲節約能量

Is the problem here that affectively belief in the United States 
目前的問題是否影響了美國人的信念

It just gone completely political
徹底地政治化

It’s almost identity politics to show your a proper hard republican
合乎嚴僅共和主義者的身份認同政治

you’re just a dare to the view that climate change is a global plot 
大膽指出氣候變遷是個全球性陰謀

And then the UN is trying to take over the US 
是聯合國試圖要統治美國

 Is that what really going on here ?
真的是這樣嗎?

For my perspective it’s become identity politics for the left to subclaim that there’s a 
imminent crisis
我認為現今身份認同政治變成左派政黨試圖宣稱目前有個緊急危難

The problem with this report is it foreshorten the problem 
這份報告的癥結點出在它將問題輕描淡寫

The rate of warming according to the data is much slower than the models used by the IPCC
根據資料顯示上升氣溫速度遠遠低於政府間氣候變化專門委員會所使用的模型

They also don’t consider the fact that we’ve already had one degree warming they estimate
除此之外，他們也忽略氣溫已經上升1度的情況

Let me interrupt you cause i think what your trying to do is trying to show that you know more science than the the scientist   
我得稍微打斷你一下，因為你現在好像試圖證明你比科學家更懂科學

Which is sort of not the case cause they’re the scientist 
但他們才是真正的科學家

What you have to do is to show not that you’re cleverer than the scientist
你需要做的不是證明自己比科學家更聰明

and there were a lot of them involved in this 
事實上許多科學家都有參與這次的議題

But the scientist somehow been taking over by plots been infected by corruption or payment 
而是指出在整個過程中，科學家受到陰謀論及金錢誘惑的影響下逐漸腐敗

Now have you any evidence that sciene 
現在你有辦法提出證據嗎?

I don’t want to here your argument with science is wrong 
我不想聽到你認為科學是有誤的爭論

Because you don’t know anything about it 
因為你不懂科學

Have you any evidence science is being corrupted in some way 
你有辦法證明科學受到任何政治腐化嗎?

The United Nations when they created the intergovernmental panel on climate change
當聯合國創造聯合國氣候變遷政府間專家委員會時

charged it with supporting the climate agenda of United Nations Framework Convention on climate change
以聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約來支持氣候行動
 
It’s meant to be a promotional body 
試圖成功推廣氣候行動的機構

Not meant to be an objective scientific advisor
而不是當個客觀的科學顧問

That if you go back and look from day one it has been a promoter not a neutral scientific body
如果你回頭看看就會知道從它開始的第一天就是個提倡者而非中立的科學機構

Do you think the scientists who reviewed this 6 thousand papers to produce this latest publication
科學家參閱6千篇文章後才發表的最新期刊

Do you literally think they don’t believe what they have said  
你真的認為他們不相信自己所說的嗎?

Is that your contention
這是你的論點嗎?

They’re climate campaigners first at the highest level 
他們是最高層級的氣候倡導者

But you’re a climate campaigner more than they are 
但你本身是個更激進的氣候行動倡導者

They’re not even paid these guys 
這些傢伙根本沒有薪水

You’re paid 
你有

I mean they’re not paid this is absolutely
他們一毛錢都沒有拿到

Look we had a the studies said we had a one degree warming already 
我們的研究指出氣溫已經往上提升1度

They don’t consider the tremendous benefits that have flowed 
而他們不認為這將會帶來好處

Again you’re trying to show you know more about the science than the scientist 
你又再次試圖證明自己比科學家更懂科學

And you don’t so
但事實並不是如此

Cause im fascinated in this sort of personally 
我個人為此深感興趣

As to denied as this human phenomenon 
即使否認這是人為現象

Do you ever think there may be a small chance 
你有沒有曾經想過

That the scientist has simply done the work 
其實科學家們已經完成本份

Straight forward had looked at their results published their results in a open minded way 
以開放的態度去查看結果並將其發佈

And presented their conclusion 
最後將結論呈現給大眾

Cause you’re just saying either you know more 
因為你現在表明要嘛你懂比較多

Or they are somehow lying to us 
要嘛就是他們謊稱

Of what they have found or what they believe 
所找到的結果或是他們的信念

I investigated claims and I find them wanting from multiple viewpoints 
我有深入探討那些言論並發現缺少許多觀點

One of them is what they are proposing needs to be done 
首先，他們所建議的方式

will have much more deleterious effects on the planet and on humanity 
除了解決問題本身

Than the problem they have identified 
還會對地球以及人性造成更嚴重的影響

I have also tried to show you 
我也試圖告訴你

The problem is in slow motion compared to what they’re claiming it is 
目前問題並沒有像他們所說得那麼嚴重

And I believe that they’re claiming it’s a imminent crisis 
我相信他們認為這是緊急危難

Because that’s their charge from the United Nations 
因為這是他們對於聯合國的責任

Can you imagine anything that the scientist could say 
你認為科學家有辦法

that would persuade the administration that it needs to take this more seriously
說服美國政府人員採取更嚴肅的作法嗎?

UH no i can’t 
恩...沒辦法

I think the administration in the american people all are 
我認為美國政府人員

pretty convinced that a pro energy agenda is much more viable and will have much better 
results
都深信支持能源目標會比支配能量

Than an energy rationing agenda
來得到更好的結果

Myron Ebell thank you very much for joining us thank you 
Myron Ebell，謝謝您的參與

very much 
感謝萬分

Joining us here in the studio Baroness Brandy Worthington leader of on the UK's 2008 climate change act
現在加入我們的是在2008年提出氣候變化法的領導者，Baroness Brandy Worthington

And Simon Beard from the Center for the Study of existential risk at Cambridge University 
以及就讀於劍橋大學並專攻生存風險的 Simon Beard 

Good evening to you both
兩位午安

Simon Beard do you think human beings are capable of dealing with a problem like this 
Simon Beard，你認為人類有辦法應對這樣的問題嗎?

Yes we are and the good news is climate changes anthropogenic, human activity is causing it
可以，好消息是氣候變遷其實是人類活動所造成的

And that means we have the capability to stop it you know
這代表著我們有辦法抑制情況惡化下去

This isn't sunspots this isn't some global conspiracy
這不是太陽黑子或是全球性陰謀

This is something that we're doing and we can undo
這是人為造成的所以我們也可以預防它再度發生

We have a bright future ahead of us
我們依舊有個美好的未來

And we have the capability to bring that about and it would be an incredibly good deal to do that
我們有能力做到而且還是個相當不錯的交易

Do that thank you do that we were causing it than it was something else
你認為是我們造成的而不是其他因素?

Because that means we have agency in this and we can do something about it
因為這意味著我們有能力去處理這一切

when you study human extinction the thing you really look for is an extinction 
當你攻讀人類滅絕時其實是在研究

that people are causing and that they know what they're doing
人類知悉卻持續維持的活動

right
對吧

The things that we worry about are the things that like with technological development where 
there's a risk
我們擔心的是像科技發展所會帶來的危險

But we don't really understand it or where something might happen and you have no control over it
但我們基本上無法控制，沒有很深入了解以及它可能會發生的事情

Space, weather, asteroids and so on there's a much scary
宇宙、天氣、小行星或是其他未知物都讓人更害怕

But climate change it's just a question of what do you think is going to be the best investment for the future
但氣候變遷就只是人們在揣測對未來最好的投資是什麼

And you know it's in becoming increasingly apparent that actually climate mitigation is gonna achieve a great deal for us and our children 
而答案也越來越清晰，減緩氣候變化明顯地有益於大眾以及我們的子孫

okay
恩恩

Baroness Worthington I'm sure you disagree with everything you heard from my reading bill I'm just guessing
Baroness Worthington，我猜妳不認同我剛剛閱讀的法案

Correct 
沒錯

Yes right so we can sit blaming the Americans for being sort of deniers
恩，所以我們可以坐在這裡怪罪美國人愛否認

However is it not the case that political realism in Europe as well is
但是歐洲的政治現實主義確實也是一大難題

an obstacle tool because actually the US may well meet its Paris climate change
因為美國仍然有可能參與巴黎氣候協議

commitments despite the Myron Ebell
即便 Myron Ebell不認同

yeah and there may be European countries that don't
恩，某些歐洲國家也可能不參與

Well Europe as a whole will I'm pretty certain because we're already overshooting our targets and in fact we could go further in Europe 
我相信整個歐洲都會參與的因為我們已經遠遠超過目標而且在歐洲可以走得更長遠

that's largely because we've got some quite sensible policies 
絕大部份的原因是因為我們據有明智的政策

We've introduced prices on pollution because at the moment we're just emitting all of these greenhouse gases into the atmosphere 
我們目前打算採用污染費因為大家現在都還是隨意地放射那些溫室氣體

For free and we know it's causing a problem and you know Myron likes to point to the
我們也都知道這將會引起問題而Myron也喜歡提出

European Union as being anti-energy or some such statement that's nothing could
be further from the truth 
歐盟反能源的說法與事實違和

we're unlocking news of energy and we're buying down the costs of the energy so that other
countries can use 
我們在解放新能量、我們試圖降低能源花費好讓其他國家使用

It it is interesting isn't it there aren't politicians who are gonna say 
令我覺得有趣的是沒有任何政治家願意討論

I mean the politicians it is struggling to find three billion four billion for social care let alone 50
billion to spend into energy 
我的意思是政治家掙扎於社會關懷所需的30、40億更別說要為能源花上5千億

say we can have the same energy we have now except cleaner but the except cleaner was quite important because there are co-benefits
好讓我們現有的能源可以更乾淨，只不過淨化的能源頗重要的因為它會帶出共同利益

to us doing this so cleaner air in cities is going to reduce the National Health Service bill 
城市裡更清新的空氣將會降低國民醫療保健服務費

Because we'll have fewer people suffering from all the related health impacts of diesel fuels
因為目前深受柴油影響所造成的重大疾病人數

That are currently choking our cities so
也會跟著減少

There are lots of what we did not saving
目前有許多我們沒有節省的

You are you ask a government hey let's put up petrol tax
你要求政府開始徵收汽油稅

How many years is it now in a row that we we've frozen petrol tax 
政府凍結汽油稅第幾年了?

rather we put up fuel duty 
反觀我們開始酌收燃料費用

Well I yeah there's a big controversy about the fuel duty price 
恩，我認同燃料費是個具爭議性的議題

But actually if you look at other policies that we've seen in the power sector 
當你深入去了解其他能源工業的政策時

Just putting a price on a loan isn't actually the important thing 
貸款金額並不是最重要的

Important thing is to recycle funds and to provide deployment support
重要的是回收基金和提供新科技技術的部署支援

For new technologies so the new wave of electric vehicles that are coming
好的政策將未來新一代的電動車

They've been really pushed forward by policy 
大大的往前推動

And policy in China most interesting me 
最讓我感興趣的是中國政策

So you know Europe's got a bit of way to catch up on transport
你知道歐洲在交通運輸上仍有待加強

but I'm sure we will do so 
但我知道我們會追上的

Simon isn't the problem here basically there are huge time lags in everything we do 
Simon，眼前的問題不就是我們在所有事情上都晚了一步嗎

So
所以

There's always a kind of let's do it tomorrow rather than today and the effects 
人們總是習慣把事情拖到明天再做

are not always felt by the same people who have to take the mitigating actions 
但後續需要做緩衝行為的可能是他人

So my actions don't come back and throw me in the face today
我的舉動沒有影響到我自己

I mean my actions are affecting other people 
我的意思是我的行為卻正在影響著別人

Those are precisely the problems which lead to sort of selfish behaviour 
這就是問題的所在點也導致了自私的舉動

On there and stopped stopped human being solving things absolutely
讓人類無法解決任何問題
 
And and if we'd been doing this when we first discovered how
如果我們在最一開始發現問題時

You know catastrophic climate change could be actually you know in the 1960s
具災難性的氣候變遷問題

And the 1970s we'd be having to do an awful lot less it would be a lot easier
我們在1960、70年代所需要做的就簡單多了

But at the end of the day it's still a really good deal 
但總歸來講，這依舊是樁相當好的交易

It's still going to benefit many people who you know currently living 
仍然可以為社會大眾帶來好處

It's it's not just a very young it's not just our children our grandchildren 
不僅僅是年輕人或是我們的子孫而已

All sorts of people are going to be benefited by not having to go through the terrible risks 
所有人都因為可以避免遭受可怕氣候變遷所引起的危險而得到好處

The terrible catastrophe the climate change could be and you know climate change has
氣候變遷確實

been a big controversy for a long time 
是個長期備受爭議的話題

when I was young I'm a millennial when I was young
我年輕時自認為是千禧世代

it was about if then it was about when
當時在想如果然後什麼時候

Actually in the last year you know it's about how and that's what this reporting
最終重要的是達成的方法也是這個報導試圖證明的

But there are three tragedies of climate change 
氣候變遷所引發的3件悲劇

The first the tragedy of the Commons which is what you're describing
首先悲慘的共同點就是

We all got act together and that will have to be solved by multilateralism
我們必須要分工合作需要仰賴多邊主義來解決

will have to reinvent that and then the IPCC is...
需要重新發明然後政府間專家委員會...

but there is another important tragedy which is the tragedy of the incumbents 
但還有另一樁悲劇就是當前的在職者

And what Myron represents is that is that is that representing of the powers that are benefiting from the status quo 
Myron所代表的正是那群從現況得利的權力族群

And what we've got to do collectively as citizens is say you know what actually the time of fossil fuel energy is coming to an end 
我們以市民身份需要做的是了解到礦物燃料世代即將結束

If it's not dealing with its pollution there are many other ways of doing this
如果這沒有辦法解決汙染問題還會有其他的辦法

And the human brain is very good at solving these challenges 
而且人腦也非常會應對種種困難

We've got the Capitol waiting to be put into projects 
我們握有大把的資金等著開發專案

We just need to now work out and get that money flowing into the solutions 
我們現在只是需要開始運用資金來解決問題

Landed costs are coming down plenty of societies you know quite civilized societies have collapsed 
降低的土地費用、許多文明社會面臨瓦解

You can read Jared Diamond's book called collapse about sort of civilizations that have 
你可以閱讀Jared Diamond的"大崩壞"是關於文明社會

Either they
要嘛

Weren't collapsing from something anthropogenic or they weren't collapsing from something they understood 
不是瓦解於人為行為或是瓦解於他們所理解的事物

There aren't examples of people who have known the risks they've known the challenges
他們不是悉知危險及挑戰的人類代表

They've known how to solve the problem and they've just walked into the...
他們知道如何解決問題但他們走進...

But there are people who deny the problem right and that that that will always be
但他們不願意去面對問題而這樣的狀況會持續存在

right 
對吧

There will always be people who deny the problem
總是會有某些人不願意看到問題

There were people who think the earth is flat 
也有人認為地球是水平的

Yeah we we have to get over them 
但我們只能選擇忽略

Exactly and they're in the minority 
他們只佔一小部分

When we when I started on this twenty years ago it was just a small group of NGOs of sounding the alarm with a few scientists 
20年前當我們開始著手於這個問題時，只有少數非政府組織的科學家加入

Now all the scientists are freaked out and the messages coming across loud and clear
現在大多數嚇壞的科學家將其消息清楚表達

Your article today is just an example of that we've got the lead story and that's where it should stay until we really make progress 
你今天的報導代表著我們身處正確的道路上而且需要努力維持直到我們有更新的發展

Thank you both very much
謝謝兩位的參與

Indeed thank you
真心感謝

Copyright Announcement: The above videos are  from the official Youtube channel of the organization. Why we're heading for a 'climate catastrophe' - BBC Newsnight https://www.youtube.com/user/BBCNewsnight . The videos we selected are all publicly available on the official channel, and we do not own the copyright of these videos. Our work on Chinese translation for this film is free for the 1.2 billion audiences in Mandarin Chinese around the world to watch and learn SDGs and SROI advertising campaigns.