MSCI CEO on China and index investing

Well I think they're gonna go through a rough period.
我認為他們會經歷一段顛簸時期

You know the market, the economy is slowing down a bit and obviously all the trade worlds.
你知道市場、經濟都在下滑，當然也包括全球貿易

But I'm a big believer in China.
但我相信中國做得到

I think the Chinese market is going to open up a lot faster than people believe.
我覺得中國市場會以超越常人看法的速度展開

Is the second-largest equity market in the world 
全球第二大的股權市場

Is trading at relatively cheap valuations.
以極為便宜的價格在交易

And you know this is a good entry point now.
目前就是最好的進入點

I'm not saying that things are gonna get worse, they could, but if you look at a long term perspective, you ought to believe that China's...
我沒有說情況不可能惡化但是以長期角度來看你必須相信中國‧‧‧‧‧‧

But even the short term how much farther do you think is that what's the downside look like in the short term, what's the upside look like that in the short term?
但以短時間來說你認為它的優缺點分別是什麼?

I think in the short term you know obviously has to do a lot with geopolitics.
我覺得在短時間內就得談到地緣政治學

You know a little bit of the Fed, you know tightening and emerging markets have been compressing a little bit but it's the geopolitics. 
某些聯邦政府官員還有市場收縮、新興市場都稍微擦邊但主要還是地緣政治學

Hopefully, in the next few months, we can see a trade deal between Trump and Xi Jinping and if you see that the market will rise.
希望在接下來的幾個月內我們可以看到川普與習近平達成一項貿易策略，假設如此的話市場將會提升

Ron says nobody's smart enough to be able to predict that.
Ron說沒有人聰明到可以預測答案

But you're smart guys so what you want to predict what's gonna happen?
但你很聰明所以你覺得之後會演變成什麼情況?

Look, I think it's gonna take time you know I think that you we will probably see some announcement that they're working on it.
聽著，我覺得會花上一點時間，我們之後也可能會得知一些進行中的公告

But it's a big problem and it's gonna take some time to make it work.
但這是個重大問題所以會需要一點時間來解決

But I think it's really interesting here what Henry's business is, he is the index
provider so whenever people are investing they need to have his products do services so they can have copper diversification.
令我感興趣地是Henry的公司負責提供指數，所以當人民在投資時會需要運用他的產品來達到銅幣多樣化

And he's the guy who invented it.
然後是他發明的

Right.
恩

So he's the guy who invented it.
所以是他發明的

He's the one who because of him it was started, was spun out, came public
他就是開啟分析指數並將其發揚光大的人

He now has three hundred three hundred million dollars plus personally in this investment that he's created because
他現在擁有30億美金再加上他所創造的投資

It's been a good run 
目前為止一切都很順利

So when exactly is the business?
所以真正的業務是什麼?

MSCI
MSCI

MSCI obviously we're well known for us, an index company but what we are is we create tools for people to make better investment decisions of all time
大眾都認為MSCI是家指數公司但其實我們在開發可以幫助人們做投資決定的工具

Performance tool, risk tool, technology, data, anything and that's how the company has grown so much
性能工具、風險評估工具、技術、數據，這也是公司發展迅速的原因

Here's my here's my question
以下是我的問題

You are an active manager you like to pick you like to pick companies and stocks like him or like his company 
你是位積極管理者，你喜歡選擇像他一樣的公司跟股票

He's on the very opposite end of this, right?
他處於完全不同的立場對嗎?

So I can't so what this has been a tremendous move toward indexation 
所以我不認為這對於指數化是有益的舉動

So he's the beneficiary of that 
而他是受益人

And the more people go to indexing the better it is for me because there's fewer people that are going to be a people can't generally beat the indexes we beat the indexes 
越多人選擇指數化對我越有益因為普通民眾無法打敗指數但我們可以

So for us this is good thing that there's less competition and we stand out more against everyone we stand out more against the indexing 
所以對我們來說是好事因為競爭性降低使我們在大眾和指數裡脫穎而出

You wrote in your letter in October that the volatility that we saw was in large part a function though of ETFs and of the CDS market 
你在10月的時候寫信表示我們所見的波動性正是指數股票型基金和信用違約交換的一大部份

Is that a good thing or a bad thing and is he at fault then?
這是好事、壞事還是他的錯?

Do you agree with that?
你認同嗎?

I don't think so 
我不這麼認為

You know look, the underlying fundamentals of any investment vehicle is gonna be people buy and sell right?
聽著，任何投資工具的潛在根本都是在於大眾之間的買賣，對嗎?

You know, it used to be mutual fund
曾經在於共同基金

People will blame the volatility of the market because retail investors we're leaving mutual funds 
人民怪罪市場波動性因為零售投資者所以我們停止共同基金

Now we blame them on ETF 
現在我們歸咎於指數股票型基金

You know it's at the end of the day these are investment vehicles, these are wrappers 
最終它們都只是投資工具、包管帳戶

And what matters is what is the belief of investor, and the equity market and if they don't have belief, they will leave and the market will go down.
重點是投資方的信念跟股權市場，假如他們沒有信念的話將會一一離去然後市場就會跟著下滑

But what do you think the idea except Harmon has positive that passive investing as effectively perverted the market 
但你對於被動型投資成功地扭曲市場有什麼想法?

Effectively because it locks in certain companies and certain types of multiples and makes it actually much harder... 
因為它成功鎖定某幾家公司、相對估值因此更難‧‧‧

Effectively the more you believe in the efficient market theory the less efficient the market really is
實際上，當你越相信效率市場假說時市場效率越小

Well you still have 75 to 80 percent of the market being active you know in the in the world so there is a huge amount of money actively managed that is that that is basically investing on fundamentals 
恩，全世界大約75-80%的市場依舊活躍所以基本上有一大筆資金投入商業基礎

You know the equity in this is about getting an exposure to a market and obviously passive investing is about that 
將其中的股權在市場上曝光，顯然地被動型投資就是如此

So I think there is still a long way to go for passive investing before we begin to worry that is taking over in the world 
所以我認為在大眾開始擔心被動型投資將會接管世界前它還有好長一段路要走

What about in the context of the crisis? 
如果是面臨危急情況呢?

When you think about especially the ETF market 
尤其是當你想到指數股票型基金市場

What happens? 
然後呢?

I think you know the ETF market will be will be as good as the underlying liquidity of the stocks in the ETFs 
我想你知道指數股票型基金市場跟潛在指數股票型基金中的流動資金幾乎一樣好

Is a lot of people talk about the ETF assets they were divorced the markets themselves 
許多人談論指數股票型基金資產與市場脫離

So if you have a lot of liquid in the stocks of the line at the ETF 
所以如果你的指數股票型基金內有大筆流動資金的話

The ETF would be fine 
那指數股票型基金就會好好的

You know the NAV will track very closely the you know the underlying fundamentals of the of this talks
淨資產價值會被仔細地追蹤也是這段談話秀的根本

One correction though, two thirds of our revenue come from active management clients and only one-third come from passive so have a strong vested interest in Ron’s success
不過有個需要澄清的點就是我們公司三分之二的利潤都來自於積極管理客戶，然後剩下的三分之一則是來自被動型投資所以我們強烈地希望Ron可以早日成功

 

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